Now that we've all had a few weeks to linger in the glory of World Championship number 27, I think all of our minds are starting to wander towards what offseason moves Cashman and company are going to make in preparation for the title defense of 2010. Let's take a look at some of the rumors we've heard already.
John Lackey:
The top free agent pitcher of the offseason, Lackey's name has been connected to the Yankees through various media sources. The school of thought is that the Bombers have some rotation questions and a veteran guy like Lackey would help to ease those concerns. This notion certainly has its merit: Lackey has been the ace of the Angels staff really since 2002, when he won Game 7 of the World Series on three days rest as a rookie. Coincidentally, this is also when he earned his reputation as a big game pitcher. He proved both of these claims in this year's ALCS, with two strong starts.
However, Lackey is said to be looking for a contract similar to, if not better than AJ Burnett's (5 years/$82.5 million). Should the Yankees be willing to commit that type of money to a 31-year-old who has missed time in the past two seasons with elbow trouble? In my opinion, absolutely not. The Yankees have enough depth (assuming they bring Pettitte back) to pass over Lackey and wait for next year's free agent pitching class, which includes the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, possibly Matt Cain, Josh Beckett and Brandon Webb. Bringing a pitcher like Justin Duchscherer, who can start and relieve, would be a must more cost-effective solution. Besides, we know that if the All-Star break comes around and they need a pitcher, they have the resources to make a move.
Matt Holliday:
Holliday is the best position player of this year's free agent class. Understandably, he has been linked to the Yankees because they will have an opening in left-field if they choose not to bring back Johnny Damon. The logic here is simple: Holliday is younger, a better defender and another powerful bat to compliment the Yankee offense. However, he is a Scott Boras client. Boras has already said he will be trying to get a contract similar to that of Mark Teixeira for his client. While you'd love to have a player like Holliday, like Lackey, you have to consider the implications of giving him that type of a contract.
A big concern that slowed the trade market for Holliday last winter was fear of his numbers away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field. In 2007, the year he should have been the National League MVP, he hit .340 with 36 home runs and 137 RBI, while OPS-ing an insane 1.012. While those are certainly legitimate numbers, he was not nearly as lethal away from Coors. While he still hit .301 on the road, only 11 of his 36 home runs and 55 of his 137 RBI's came away from home. His OPS and SLG percentage also both took significant hits on the road: while his OPS was 1.157 at home, it was merely .860 away from Coors, and his SLG percentage dropped from a ridiculous .722 at home, to a pedestrian .485 on the road.
Holliday certainly did nothing to ease his concerns with a slow start in Oakland this spring, before righting the ship after a mid-season trade to St. Louis. This raised yet another question: can he handle the American League? While I have no doubts he is an established player who could help the Yankees, there's no way I'm investing the type of money Boras wants into a player with those questions.
Curtis Granderson:
Recently made available (along with SP Edwin Jackson) by Tigers GM Dave Dambrowski, much speculation has already risen about New York's interest in the left-handed hitting center fielder. Much like Holliday, Granderson broke out in 2007, hitting .302 with 23 home runs and 78 RBI. He stole 26 bases, hit 38 doubles and tripled 23 times. It was a monster offensive year all-around for Granderson, as he put himself on the map in a big way. He also has earned a reputation as an above-average center fielder, making him a seemingly perfect fit in New York. However, the concern with Granderson also comes via the splits.
Even in his monster year of 2007, Granderson has struggled with left-handed pitching. That year, he hit a measly .160 with 3 home runs and 10 RBI of lefties. He also had an extremely low OPS of .494. In 2009, these struggles continued in a big way: his triple slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) was a very weak .183/.245/.239, good for an OPS of .484. Only 2 of his 30 home runs in 2009 came off lefties and he also struck out 42 times in 180 at-bats against southpaws. Keith Law went so far as to say Granderson is now exclusively a "platoon player". So once again, maybe he's the type of guy you'd like to see in Pinstripes, but a what cost? A trade for Granderson would almost certainly cost them Austin Jackson and at least one pitcher of the Ian Kennedy/Ivan Nova mold. If you ask me, that's too much to pay when there are other options for 2010 and Carl Crawford as a free agent in 2011.
Roy Halladay:
There are bound to be numerous rumors of the Yankees trading for "Doc" Halladay this offseason. And in all fairness, it's certainly something to get excited about. Halladay is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He's durable (9 complete games in three different seasons), reliable, and has proven effective in the AL East, something fans have to like. There's nothing about Halladay that would make me not want him on any team I was a fan of. However, the price tag may be a little much for my liking, especially when he'll be a free agent next winter.
Any trade for Halladay would almost certainly center around Yankee stud-prospect, Jesus Montero. On top of that, the Jays would likely ask for one of Hughes or Joba, in addition to one or more of the other top arms in the system (Kennedy, Nova, Zach McCallister and etc.) For me, that's too much for one year of Halladay. To steal a line from Mike Axisa over at
River Avenue Blues, if it were last year's deadline it would be different. Then you'd be looking at a year and a half of "Doc" and possibly two championships. Now, it seems silly to give up that much talent when you'd just have to pay him for 2011. To me, it'd be better to wait a year, then go get him if they see fit.
So now that we've looked at some of the major story lines so far this offseason, it's time for me to put on the GM hat. First, let's deal with the Yankee free agents: Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Andy Pettitte, Jerry Hairston Jr., Jose Molina, Eric Hinske and Xavier Nady. If I could bring both Damon and Matsui back on affordable 1+1 deals (1-year with team option for 2011), I would do it in a heartbeat. I think this group could win it all again next year and there's no reason not to have them both back if they can do it reasonably. Next, bringing back Pettitte is a no-brainer, a 1-year deal about $10 million sounds okay to me. If Hairston can be had for at least one more year at a reasonable price, I say he comes back as well. As for Hinske and Molina, in my mind they can both walk. Francisco Cervelli becomes the back-up catcher while Juan Miranda takes Hinske's place as the left-handed bat off the bench. Finally, we come to Nady. Personally, I'd like to see him back on a 1-year, incentive type deal. However, I don't see this happening, as he's too much of a risk at this point and I predict he'll end up somewhere in the NL.
At long last, we come to non-Yankee free agents. I've already voiced my disapproval for signing Lackey and Holliday, and I feel the same way about Jason Bay, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Tim Hudson, Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis, Joel Pinero and Eric Bedard. Basically, I think this year's free-agent class sucks, and none of them are worth big money. However, there are a few guys I wouldn't mind the Yankees taking a run at. To start, I think Mike Cameron would be a perfect fit as a one year stopgap in the Yankee outfield until Austin Jackson is ready (presumably in 2011). He could play center, which moves Melky Cabrera over to left and instantly improves their outfield defense. Cameron would also provide some pop in the Yankee lineup. I've already mentioned Duchscherer as a pitching target, as I think he makes perfect sense for 2010. He makes a perfect 6th starter (after Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Joba and Hughes) and has pitched in relief before which would provide great depth to their middle relief corps. Finally, if the Yanks don't bring back Matsui, they are likely to play Jorge Posada more at DH. If they're not comfortable with Cervelli catching an increased number of games, a veteran back-up like Gregg Zaun makes a lot of sense. I say Zaun and not Molina because while Molina is great behind the dish, he flat out can't hit, and Zaun would provide a little more offense.
So there you have it. As you can see, I'm not looking for a ton of blockbuster moves this winter. This Yankee team is good enough to win again. The free agents I have my eye on are coming next year.